Macro Nowcasting Desk

Probability Signals & Sentiment

Cross - venue prediction - market intelligence. We aggregate polymarket, Kalshi, Predictlt, manifold & meticulous into a single belief lattice - then surface the moves that matter.

Market State DIVERGENT

Tracked Indicators8

Live Feeds1

Upside Surprises3

Downside Surprises5

Avg Model Confidence72%

Nowcasts

Model-driven current-quarter / current-period estimates vs consensus

US · Second Quarter+2.2 Vs Cons.

Real GDP

4.5%QoQ SASR

Nowcast4.3

Consensus2.1

Prior3.1

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Consumer Spending+1.6

Business Investment+0.5

Net Exports-0.3

Government+5.6

Model Confidence

74%

EU · Second Quarter-0.4 Vs Cons.

Core CPI

3.2%YoY

Nowcast3.1

Consensus3.5

Prior3.8

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Services Inflation+2.1

Energy Prices-0.8

Food & Beverages+0.6

Goods Inflation+0.4

Model Confidence

68%

US · First Quarter+1.8 Vs Cons.

PCE Deflator

2.8%YoY

Nowcast2.9

Consensus1.1

Prior2.6

Model Vs Actual · Last 87/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Housing Services+1.2

Medical Care+0.4

Transportation-0.2

Recreation+0.3

Model Confidence

81%

UK · Second Quarter-1.1 Vs Cons.

Unemployment

4.2%

Nowcast4.4

Consensus5.5

Prior4

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Youth Unemployment+0.8

Part-Time Workers+0.3

Long-Term Unemp.-0.1

Job Vacancies-0.4

Model Confidence

61%

US · Second Quarter+3.1 Vs Cons.

ISM Manufacturing

52.4Index

Nowcast52.8

Consensus49.7

Prior50.3

Model Vs Actual · Last 88/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

New Orders+2.4

Production+1.7

Employment-0.6

Supplier Delivery+0.8

Model Confidence

79%

JP · Second Quarter-0.7 Vs Cons.

Trade Balance

-¥1.2TJPY

Nowcast-1.4

Consensus-0.7

Prior-0.9

Model Vs Actual · Last 84/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Auto Exports-1.8

Energy Imports+2.1

Electronics+0.6

Food Imports+0.4

Model Confidence

55%

US · Second Quarter+2.5 Vs Cons.

Nonfarm Payrolls

242KMoM

Nowcast248

Consensus198

Prior227

Model Vs Actual · Last 87/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Leisure & Hospitality+52K

Healthcare+38K

Manufacturing-12K

Government+18K

Model Confidence

83%

CN · Second Quarter+1.4 Vs Cons.

Retail Sales

6.8%YoY

Nowcast7.1

Consensus5.7

Prior5.5

Model Vs Actual · Last 86/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Online Sales+3.2

Auto Sales+1.4

Catering Services+0.9

Luxury Goods-0.5

Model Confidence

71%

US · Second Quarter+2.2 Vs Cons.

Real GDP

4.5%QoQ SASR

Nowcast4.3

Consensus2.1

Prior3.1

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Consumer Spending+1.6

Business Investment+0.5

Net Exports-0.3

Government+5.6

Model Confidence

74%

EU · Second Quarter-0.4 Vs Cons.

Core CPI

3.2%YoY

Nowcast3.1

Consensus3.5

Prior3.8

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Services Inflation+2.1

Energy Prices-0.8

Food & Beverages+0.6

Goods Inflation+0.4

Model Confidence

68%

US · First Quarter+1.8 Vs Cons.

PCE Deflator

2.8%YoY

Nowcast2.9

Consensus1.1

Prior2.6

Model Vs Actual · Last 87/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Housing Services+1.2

Medical Care+0.4

Transportation-0.2

Recreation+0.3

Model Confidence

81%

UK · Second Quarter-1.1 Vs Cons.

Unemployment

4.2%

Nowcast4.4

Consensus5.5

Prior4

Model Vs Actual · Last 85/8 In Range

Forecast

Actual

Component Drivers

Youth Unemployment+0.8

Part-Time Workers+0.3

Long-Term Unemp.-0.1

Job Vacancies-0.4

Model Confidence

61%

Regime Probability Matrix

Cross - Country Regime Decomposition • Dominant state highlighted

USStagflation 47%

Nowcast4.3

Stagflation47%

Recession22%

Recovery13%

EUStagflation 41%

Nowcast4.3

Stagflation47%

Recession22%

Recovery13%

JPStagflation 38%

Nowcast3.8

Stagflation38%

Recession20%

Recovery18%

UKStagflation 35%

Nowcast5

Stagflation35%

Recession25%

Recovery15%

CNStagflation 30%

Nowcast6.2

Stagflation30%

Recession18%

Recovery22%

Upcoming Releases

Forward-looking macro calendar with our model forecasts

Date/Time	Cty	Indicator	Prior	Cons	Fcst	Tier
05-25 08:30 ET	US	Core PCE Price Index Jan 2026	Prior 0.2%	Cons. 0.2%	Forecast 0.3%	High
05-25 08:30 ET	US	ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan 2026	Prior 0.2%	Cons. 0.2%	Forecast 0.3%	High
05-26 10:00 ET	US	New Home Sales Jan 2026	Prior —	Cons. —	Forecast 750K	Medium
05-25 08:30 ET	US	Crude Oil Inventories Jan 2026	Prior —	Cons. —	Forecast —	Low
05-27 14:00 ET	US	FOMC Minutes Mar 2026	Prior —	Cons. —	Forecast —	High
05-28 08:30 ET	US	Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 2026	Prior 228K	Cons. 190K	Forecast 205K	High
05-28 08:30 ET	US	Unemployment Rate Apr 2026	Prior 3.9%	Cons. 3.9%	Forecast 4.0%	High

Date/Time

Cty

Indicator

Prior

Cons

Fcst

Tier

05-25

08:30 ET

Core PCE Price Index

Jan 2026

Prior

0.2%

Cons.

0.2%

Forecast

0.3%

High

05-25

08:30 ET

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jan 2026

Prior

0.2%

Cons.

0.2%

Forecast

0.3%

High

05-26

10:00 ET

New Home Sales

Jan 2026

Prior

—

Cons.

—

Forecast

750K

Medium

05-25

08:30 ET

Crude Oil Inventories

Jan 2026

Prior

—

Cons.

—

Forecast

—

Low

05-27

14:00 ET

FOMC Minutes

Mar 2026

Prior

—

Cons.

—

Forecast

—

High

05-28

08:30 ET

Nonfarm Payrolls

Apr 2026

Prior

228K

Cons.

190K

Forecast

205K

High

05-28

08:30 ET

Unemployment Rate

Apr 2026

Prior

3.9%

Cons.

3.9%

Forecast

4.0%

High

Market Intelligence • Not Investment Advice • Users Remain Solely Responsible For All Investment Decisions And Associated Risks