Probability Signals & Sentiment
Cross-venue prediction market intelligence. We aggregate polymarket, Kalshi, Predictit, manifold & meticulous into a single belief lattice — then surface the moves that matter.
Market State DIVERGENT
Watchlists
Themed collections of events for focused monitoring.
Rate Path
Central-bank and inflation markets driving the front end.
4 events tracked
Geopolitical Risk
Conflict, elections and shutdown risk.
3 events tracked
Commodities & Crypto
Energy supply and digital-asset targets.
2 events tracked
Probability movers
| EVENT / OUTCOME | CATEGORY | PROB | Δ1M | Δ1H | Δ24H | SHOCK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed cuts rates at March FOMC meetingYes | macro | 72.0% | +6.4pp | +9.1pp | +14.2pp | EXTREME |
| Ceasefire agreement reached in Eastern Europe by Q2Yes | geopolitics | 38.0% | -5.1pp | -7.8pp | -11.4pp | HIGH |
| US CPI prints above 3.5% year-over-yearYes | macro | 44.0% | +3.9pp | +5.2pp | +6.8pp | HIGH |
| OPEC+ announces additional production cutYes | markets | 61.0% | +4.2pp | +3.1pp | +8.7pp | HIGH |
| Government shutdown avoided before deadlineYes | politics | 66.0% | +3.2pp | +6.7pp | +5.4pp | NOTABLE |
| Incumbent wins national election first roundYes | politics | 55.0% | -2.8pp | -4.5pp | -3.2pp | NOTABLE |
| Bitcoin closes above $120k this monthYes | markets | 29.0% | +2.7pp | +4.8pp | +9.3pp | NOTABLE |
| China GDP growth beats 5% target this quarterYes | macro | 41.0% | -3.4pp | -2.1pp | -4.8pp | NOTABLE |
| Major tech antitrust ruling before year endYes | politics | 47.0% | +1.4pp | +2.2pp | +3.9pp | DEVELOPING |
| ECB holds rates at next policy meetingYes | macro | 83.0% | -1.1pp | -0.8pp | +1.6pp | DEVELOPING |
Alerts
Probability of a March rate cut surged 6.4pp in 15 minutes on a hotter-than-expected labor revision. Move cleared volume, velocity and z-score noise filters. Rate-sensitive assets (2Y yields, gold) confirmed direction within the hour.
CROSS-ASSET 1H: GC=F +1.6% ZN=F +0.8%
Ceasefire odds dropped 5.1pp after negotiations stalled. Energy complex reacted with a modest bid; equity risk proxies softened but confirmation is only partial.
CROSS-ASSET 1H: CL=F +1.4%
Sustained one-hour drift toward a hot CPI print. Consistent with softening in rate-cut expectations elsewhere on the board.
Production-cut odds jumped on wire reports of an emergency call. Crude futures confirmed with a sharp intraday bid.
Shutdown-avoidance odds climbed after a bipartisan framework leaked. Cross-asset confirmation still pending.
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