Cross - Asset Alpha Engine
Curated macro charts with proprietary insight behind each - rate differentials, breadth divergences, vol-curve dislocations, credit-equity lead/lag, and cross-asset correlations. Read once. Act once.
Weekly Highlights
Stagflation regime persistence; positioning skewed long quality, short cyclicals.
- 01
USD rate differential vs G7 still positive across the curve supports USD carry trades into next FOMC.
- 02
breadth > 200EMA has rolled over 4% in 10d while index makes marginal new highs — classic late-cycle warning.
- 03
Despite recent volatility, emerging markets show resilience, attracting capital flows and providing diversification opportunities.
- 04
Inflation expectations remain anchored, but supply chain concerns could trigger short-term price spikes, warranting caution.
- 05
Equity valuations are stretched in many sectors, indicating a potential correction if earnings growth does not meet forecasts.
Liquidity & Cross Signals
USD Rate Differential VS G7
USD short rate premium intact vs EUR/GBP/JPY/CAD/AUD/CHF/NZD — carry trade tailwind persists through the next FOMC window.
% Stocks > 200 EMA vs NASDAQ
USD short rate premium intact vs EUR/GBP/JPY/CAD/AUD/CHF/NZD — carry trade tailwind persists through the next FOMC window.
WTI Front / 12m Spread
Front-month flipped to contango at −1.8% vs back. Term-structure inversion historically front-runs realized vol expansions of +28% within 30 days.
HY- IG Credit Spread
Spread widened 20bpX in 14 sessions to 312bps. HY repricing leads equity drawdowns by ~6 weeks. Watch for sympathy move in cyclicals.
Gold / Silver Ratio
Ratio at 88.4x — 2.10 above 5-year mean. Reverts within 60 days in 78% of historical episodes. Tactical mean-reversion.
VIX Term Structure
VIX9D > VIX9D > VIX3M — front-end stressed but curve still steep on 6M+. Vol selling on the wing remains positive-EV.
DXY vs Risk Assets 60d Correlation
DXY-SPX correlation has flipped to −0.62 (deeply negative): weakness is now the marginal driver of risk-on, not earnings.
US 10Y Real Yield
Real yields holding above 2.0% despite Fed dovish lean — a structural headwind for duration and wld that the market is mispricing.
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