Seasonality & Flow Desk

Positioning, Cycles & Options Flow

CFTC Commitments of Traders for global Financial, agricultural and energy instruments, asset seasonality with regime - conditional returns, and options - derived sentiment via the volatility skew Surface.

COT Positioning • Latest CFTC Report

Global Financial Instruments

InstrumentNetWow10W Trend

Dow Jones

DJIA

+544.3K

NET

-20.43%

WOW

S&P 500

SPX

-1.45M

NET

+14.86%

WOW

NASDAQ

COMP

+1.20M

NET

+12.34%

WOW

FTSE 100

-300K

NET

-5.67%

WOW

DAX

FDAX

+250K

NET

+3.45%

WOW

Nikkei 225

N225

+400K

NET

+6.78%

WOW

CAC 40

CAC

-150K

NET

-4.12%

WOW

Hang Seng Index

HSI

+500K

NET

+8.90%

WOW

Energy & Metals Instruments

InstrumentNetWow10W Trend

Crude Oil

-985.6K

NET

+12.98%

WOW

Brent Oil

+1.00M

NET

+21.98%

WOW

Natural Gas

+250K

NET

+15.50%

WOW

Gold

-3.5K

NET

+0.45%

WOW

Silver

+12.5M

NET

-5.75%

WOW

Copper

-500K

NET

+7.20%

WOW

Aluminum

+1.5M

NET

+9.00%

WOW

Corn

+100K

NET

+3.30%

WOW

Desk Commentary

Energy & Metals Instruments

May 24 2025

USD Positioning remains net long across DXY and against EUR – Speculator longs at 1.5y high, Contrarian risk skew building

S&P 500 Specs filpped net short – 1.4M Contracts this week (+14.5% wow) historically a contrarian buy signal when paired with rising VIX

Gold prices gain momentum as inflation concerns grow – hedge funds increase long positions in anticipation of market instability

Oil futures dip amid global supply concerns – OPEC production cuts lead to mixed sentiments among traders

Cryptocurrency market shows signs of recovery – Bitcoin approaches $30,000 as institutional interest rises

US Treasury yields edge higher – investors eye upcoming economic data for signs of Fed policy shifts

Regime Takeaway

Specs are positioned for USD strength + commodity squeeze + equity downside hedges — consistent with the stagflation playbook.

Seasonality Map

EURUSD Seasonality • 10y

Color encodes monthly return. Bottom row is the 10-year average per calendar month.

AVG % RETURN / MO

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2017

+2.74

+7.96

+4.36

+9.98

+1.74

-8.23

-1.74

-2.85

+5.98

-7.47

-4.95

-8.74

2018

-8.23

+2.74

-1.74

+4.36

+1.74

-7.47

+9.98

-2.85

-4.95

-8.74

+7.96

+5.98

2019

+3.47

-5.12

+6.22

-1.58

+2.90

+0.45

-9.33

+4.21

-3.56

+7.18

+6.74

+8.55

2020

-7.89

+3.14

+5.67

-4.29

-1.11

+8.20

-3.44

+2.88

-4.76

+6.47

+9.63

-0.55

2021

+9.14

+1.23

-2.99

+3.80

-4.60

+0.59

+5.45

-6.60

+7.44

-3.20

+2.15

+1.22

2022

+5.24

-6.44

+4.32

-2.10

+6.19

-4.23

-7.08

+2.58

+9.76

-1.67

+3.37

+5.45

2023

+4.68

-2.33

+1.11

+4.75

-3.84

-1.29

+7.99

+8.45

-5.69

-9.12

-2.52

+1.77

2024

-5.78

-3.90

+7.24

+2.21

+0.88

-6.53

-5.44

-2.92

+1.50

-0.73

+4.92

+5.23

2025

+2.10

-7.67

-2.63

+4.78

-1.45

+3.44

+0.94

-0.56

+6.30

+1.97

+5.05

+3.74

2026

-4.58

+3.75

+6.84

-5.11

+1.04

-3.27

+2.98

+7.01

+8.66

-2.34

+4.12

+0.45

2027

+5.92

-3.26

-1.56

-6.34

+4.84

-2.77

+1.12

-2.57

+5.01

-3.81

+6.73

+7.88

10y avg

+0.62

-0.90

+2.44

+0.95

+0.76

-1.92

+0.13

+0.62

+2.34

-1.95

+3.93

+2.82

Seasonality Drivers

EURUSD Returns by Regime

Average monthly return conditional on the macro regime (10-year sample).

EURUSD Volatility Skew

Implied volatility across moneyness for 5 tenors. Negative 25LRR = put richer (skew bearish).

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